Wednesday, December 30, 2009

The Most Significant Event of the Decade - China's Rise

On December 29th in Urumqi, China, a mentally ill British national was executed (probably by lethal injection although the Chinese won't tell us) for smuggling heroin in a suitcase from Tajikistan. Akmal Shaikh, 53, and a father of three was convicted in a 2008 trial which lasted half an hour. During the proceedings the judges laughed at Mr. Shaikh's rambling attempt to explain the suitcase found in his possession and declared him guilty. A British national has not been executed in China since the Second World War, but despite pleas for clemency from British PM Gordon Brown and Foreign Secretary David Miliband the killing took place on time and in secret. According to the BBC "Mr Shaikh's family made continued calls for leniency right up until the execution deadline, citing his mental state, saying that he suffered from bipolar disorder. His daughter Leilla Horsnell said: "I am shocked and disappointed that the execution went ahead with no regards to my dad's mental health problems.""
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China knows that nowadays it can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants to whomever it wants. In a process that began in 2003 President Bush began borrowing huge sums of money from China (through US Treasuries) to fund his wars; FDR raised taxes to beat the Nazis, Bush borrowed from the Chinese. The process continued throughout the decade as the United States non military budget also soared. In the last year Obama's Keynesian recovery plan was financed not by raising taxes but by selling even more Treasury Bonds to China. China is now our bank and the one person you can never afford to piss off is the bank manager. China's GDP growth in this recession year was a measly 7.5 percent and this year she expanded her conventional and nuclear arsenal - China is a bank manager toting an AK-47 in one hand and a TOW anti-tank launcher in the other.
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Everything is now made in China: shoes, clothes, toys, kitchen equipment, tools, soon Volvo cars, not long after that, all other cars. The Chinese make everything, they work harder than everyone else, and there are 1.3 billion of them. This decade saw the Chinese began finally to flex their muscles protecting their heinous friends in such places as Iran, Zimbabwe, North Korea and Burma. If I were a third world dictator with, say, a big bauxite mine on my territory I'd cozy up to the Chinese too. This hegemonization process, is, I think, largely irreversible. America will not face up to the situation it is in: the Democrats won't cut entitlements or raise retirement ages, the Republicans won't raise taxes - the days of balanced budgets and paying down the debt are over. Europe and Japan are even more screwed as they age, become less productive, and increasingly irrelevant.
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I've been to China and I found it to be a rough and scary place. People who care about human rights or weep about the West's treatment of animals should certainly avoid going there; but the Chinese way is the way of the future - their recent accumulation of capital is almost unparalleled in history and shows no sign (thanks to Paul Krugman and the Afghan War) of slowing. The Sixteenth Century belonged to the Spanish. The Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries to the French. The 1800's was the era of the British Empire and the Twentieth Century was dominated by America. Hopefully India will rise too as it is more my sort of place but for the moment I think we are all living in the Chinese Century and we just haven't realised it yet.

32 comments:

Dana King said...

As an American, what disturbs me most about your post--aside from you being spot on--is that America as a nation is complicit in its own undoing, all in the name of profit.

Walmart led the way; a company founded and run by folks far to the right of center, America first-ers on the surface, led the charge. A few years ago Mattel was apologizing to China because toys made there to be shipped here met virtually none of our child safety regulations. (We didn't explain them well enough.)

A lot of people are making a lot of money thanks to Chinese-financed American debt. Unless that changes--and it's not likely--things aren't going to get any better.

Uriah Robinson said...

An accurate analysis, but we the people could alter this situation a little by not purchasing Chinese manufactured goods. Admittedly we would have either an empty house and no car, or pay three times as much for everything we buy, but at least we would have the satisfaction of doing something to reverse this trend.
Those heinous friends of China that you mention, Iran, Zimbabwe, Burma and North Korea never ever seem to receive any criticism from the UN. I wonder why?

Alan Glynn said...

Great point, well made. Great post. Great blog, and consistently so. Happy new decade.

adrian mckinty said...

Dana

I remember that Mattel incident. It was embarrassing and shameful.

I just watched something on TV last night about Christmas decorations. Apparently 90 percent of all Christmas decorations are made in one small town in China. Its incredible really.

adrian mckinty said...

Uriah

The fact that Volvo has just been bought by the Chinese is, I think, a turning point.

It used to be that 10 percent of all the worlds ships were made in Belfast and then someone opened one yard in East Asia and now most ships are built there. Belfast of course doesnt make any ships anymore.

adrian mckinty said...

Alan,

Not sure if you noticed but I give you a little hat tip in the post below this one. One of my books of the year - Winterland. I also voted for you on Dec Burke's late lamented blog.

Peter Rozovsky said...

I read about the execution, and I realized all those gung-ho theologians of the free market who said economic engagement was the way to win countries over to respect for human rights seem strangely silent now.
================
Detectives Beyond Borders
"Because Murder Is More Fun Away From Home"
http://detectivesbeyondborders.blogspot.com/

John McFetridge said...

Yes, the most significant event of the decade.

And never mind the manufactured goods coming out of China, how much of our food is coming from China?

I recently read Jeff Rubin's book, "Why Your World is About to Get a Lot Smaller," and he really feels that much higher oil prices will result in a return to manufacturing closer to home - a difficult and costly change that will result in a lot less 'stuff' for a lot of people.

Here's a video of him
But your post really made me think about a line from a recent column by Conrad Black (prison isn't slowing him down bit):

About 10 years ago, an associate of mine, in conversation with the Chinese ambassador in London, recited Voltaire’s famous formula that it is better for 10 guilty men to go free than for one innocent one to be condemned. The ambassador stared quizzically and said: “Better for whom?”

The column pretty much says what Adrian says, but in Conrad's much more pompous prose.

adrian mckinty said...

Peter

Well the engagement and lowering of tariffs has certainly helped the Chinese. In spades.

adrian mckinty said...

John

Thats a very interesting piece by Black. Yeah pity about the prose, but still it makes me think that things are actually going to be worse than I imagined. It seems that people who really know China and its rulers are more nervous than the rest of us.

Its funny, the recession has been mild in Australia because of the huge trade of raw materials to China which hasnt slowed. And of course Australia does nothing to offend China, it cant afford to. China has the economic muscle and its army is actually larger than the entire population of this country.

I think the only people in the world who arent cowed by the Chinese are the Vietnamese who are even tougher.

John McFetridge said...

When it comes to China it makes me think of, "What do women want?"

What does China want?

Certainly the relationship we have now is symbiotic. We're like the gambler who owes his bookie - the bookie treatens a lot but what he really wants is to be paid.

Or maybe the relationship is more like drug dealer and addict - the dealer knows it won't last forever, eventually the addict can't raise any money at all and is useless to the dealer.

The Rubin books paints a picture of a much less affluent future, but that may not be all bad.

When I'm in the mood, Conrad's prose can be fun. The problem is, when it comes to stuff like China's leadership he probably does know more than we like to admit and he's pretty clear-eyed and unsentimental in his reporting (would he say, "reportage?).

Girish Shahane said...

Great post, Adrian, I have two points to make about it: India catching up with China: forget it, ain't gonna happen for the foreseeable future.
More importantly, China is, as you say, a huge lender, but don't forget a lender stands to lose a lot if the borrower defaults or runs the risk of insolvency. China has a massive stake in the success of the US economy: it needs the market for its products and it needs treasuries to remain super-secure investments.

adrian mckinty said...

John

Yeah its a good question.

I dont know what they're going to do. They're certainly building a navy and will be putting a man on the moon before the end of the next decade. Taiwan might be an interesting test case in about five or six years. Will we risk WWIII for Taiwan? I hope Obama or any other President doesnt have to make that decision.

adrian mckinty said...

Girish

Yes they cant kill the Golden Goose can they? I think America's immigrants might save it. They always have in the past. We'll see about that.

From visiting both India and China I feel that India has a humanity and a lack of the killer instinct that you find everywhere and certainly among the business community in China. Perhaps this will hold India back.

Brian O'Rourke said...

Great post. Thoughtful and right on the money.

Re: Taiwan. My history is a little fuzzy here, but didn't the US turn its back on Taiwan in the 70s...I'm not sure how strong a position we'd take nowadays against China on that issue.

buff said...

All this nonsense about China reminds me of similar predictions made about Japan twenty years ago, none of which materialised.

The last two empires to rule the world, America and Britain, were democracies. China, on the other hand, is a totalitarian state of questionable political stability. Its one child policy means it's a rapidly aging society and I've no doubt a lot of it's growth will turn out to be as illusory as Dubai's. Its present stimulus policy involves the govt. telling the state run banks to lend money and its state run business to borrow money regardless of any economic rationale for doing so

And China is at least as dependent on America as America is on it.

adrian mckinty said...

Buff

If you dont see the systemic differences between Japan in 1990 and China in 2010 there's very little I can do to convince you.

I agree that for the moment China needs the US market as much as the US needs China's money.

John McFetridge said...

The question is, what does China need America for?

Continued economic prosperity, sure, but if that were to slow down or stop, what would China do? As Buff (and Conrad Black) points out, China isn't a western-style democracy so chances are China would simply once again clamp down harder on the people there.

Maybe we're confusing, "need" with "using."

Right now China is using the wealth it's getting from the West to raise the standard of living of a small percentage of its population (and keep people in line) but if they didn't have that to use they'd use something else. It's not about the wealth, it's about keepig the people in line.

China's history is five thousand years of keeping people in line (and most of them fed, which is quite an accomplishment considering the amount of food banks we have in 'the west').

So, when Chona has bled the west dry and clamps down on its people there, what happens to America?

seana said...

You guys are bumming me out. Here I was just trying to get through the end of a whimpering pitiful 2009 in good cheer, and now you've brought up the whole future of the world to depress me. And I have a cold.

I was really interested in reading about China for awhile back in the eighties. It was a time when a lot of Americans, some of my friends included, were very excited about the opening of China and all that. Lots of Americans went over during that era, as either students or teachers or tourists. I think that at that time there was a kind of infatuation with China and a willingness to overlook the government in favor of the Chinese people. I suppose that at the time, the government looked like it was thawing.

Of course, Tianamen Square changed all that. It should have alerted everyone permanently that the Chinese powers that be would never tolerate dissent if it could simply crush it instead.

A book that I read in that era was Jonathan Spence's Gate of Heavenly Peace, and I think the hopeful element, far as it may be from fruition, was the struggles of the students even back at the time before Mao to lead China to another destiny. It's not that China is actually monolithic, it only seems so due to suppression and fear. Another 1989 moment may appear.

It's funny, I was talking with my brother in law about the gloomy retail end of 2008, and he said, you can do all the marketing in the world, but it doesn't do any good if the people aren't buying. He was talking about the commercial retail system in America, which he's had a costly experience with, but it's true for China too. They have nothing to sell if we don't buy. And who needs Christmas lights anyway?

seana said...

Oh, and I just read Winterland over the holiday. That was due first to seeing your blurb in a catalog, Adrian, and then Alan kindly sending me a copy. It's terrific and fits in with this post very well, as it deals with business and governmental workings behind the scenes of seemingly benign expansions. Okay, it's unlikely that Ireland is going to take over the world, but you never know.

John McFetridge said...

Hey Seana, I know how you feel, I think. I spent Christmas with some pople who are very down these days, worried about the future, too much, I think.

One thing that struck me was that the fear that our lifestyle would change in the coming years was about equal to the complaining about what's wrong with our lifestyle now.

It seems like we spend a lot of time defending things we don't like that much - mostly consumerism.

So, maybe China will develop a big enough middle-class that they can buy the plastic crap themselves.

Maybe the idea of having less "stuff" doesn't have to be so bad. Maybe we'll finally take a good look at what we value and make some changes (forced changes, as changes usually are).

I felt that way reading Jeff Rubin's book. I don't think I was supposed to, I think as he was warning that with the coming high price of oil and inevitable recession and how I wouldn't be able to drive my car everywhere, get cheap fast-food at the drive-through while taking my kids to soccer I was supposed to be scared but I don't do those things now. If that lifesyle is really what we're going to lose, it may not be so bad in the long run (it'll be tough in the short run, of course).

seana said...

It is a bit ironic that two of the themes I see coming up again and again are those of simplifying our lives and getting rid of all the stuff we've accumulated. Maybe we'd actually be happier if we didn't buy so much of it in the first place.

This could fit into a China boycott quite nicely.

Matt said...

Yeah, remember back in the mid-90s when there was all that hysteria over Japan buying up America? Michael Crichton a very worried 6"10 tall man? I bet many people now think of those as the good ol' days...

Adrian, you linked Yoani Sánchez's blog on life in Cuba to many of us, and to many of us, it was a revelation. Anyone know of any Chinese counterparts?

seana said...

Don't know of one, but I'd love to read one. (In English, which Yoani's tireless translators make possible.)

adrian mckinty said...

John

Well you know Canada's going to be laughing with all that oil shale. 300 billion barrels of provable reserves at 100 dollars a barrel will pay for a lot of government programmes and hospitals. And theres another trillion barrels that could be taken out with newer technologies.

adrian mckinty said...

Seana

Did you ever see Connections that James Burke series. I'd give you a youtube link but whats the point. In episode 1 he asks what the hell we are going to do when the consumer society finally begins to slow or grind to a halt. Doesnt give much of an answer though. I suppose the Amish will be fine.

adrian mckinty said...

Matt

I dont know of any. Cuba's a dictatorship but it gets its oil from Chavez who thinks of himself as a democrat so it does have certain restraints. It seems to me that China has no restraints. Dissent at all and you're off to the gulag. As John says they've had 3000 years to perfect social control. They're doing a good job.

marco said...

Liu Xiaobo

an old article

Amnesty on China

Blogger's website deleted by Microsoft following government's request

China Digital Times

seana said...

I think I only saw little bits of Connections when it was on, but I'd be interested in it now. I'll look for it soon as I am going to resolve the computer situation in January.

I think we'd grumble a lot if the Amish ruled the world, but probably wouldn't be jailed or executed for being dissidents. Just cast out into the wilderness.

Thanks for the links Marco--I'd heard about Liu Xiaobo, and that doesn't sound like good news for any freethinking Chinese bloggers.

Peter Rozovsky said...

But if we decided to leave, they'd still let us eat with them. We wouldn't go to school after about age 16, and while we were in school we'd giggle a lot over the names of our towns.
==============
Detectives Beyond Borders
"Because Murder Is More Fun Away From Home"
http://www.detectivesbeyondborders.blogspot.com/

John H said...

I'm all in favor of the global economy but the western nations simply can't continue to spend more than they take in.

The USA may be the country pointed at the most but the Europeans are running a close second. It probably won't happen in my lifetime but at some point western civilization will go broke unless we make changes.

I'm not so much worried about China as I am our spend, spend, spend mentality. China isn't as monolithic as we sometimes think.

Wonderful blog Adrian. I ran across it on Peter's deal.

adrian mckinty said...

John

It would be very nice if we could inject some long term thinking into the US and Europe but the election cycles are so ridiculously short I dont see that happening.

Still I'm mildly optimistic that we'll see whats going on sooner or later.