The Votamatic prediction has barely changed since June and was completely accurate on the night
If you've watched any American TV over the last few months you'll have been under the impression that this was going to be a close Presidential election, a "nail biter", a real horse race. Two weeks ago many of the networks were saying that Mitt Romney had the "momentum" and a very good chance of winning. The numbers have told a different story. The horse race was completely fake. Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium, Nate Silver at the 538 Blog and Drew Linzer at Votamatic never once showed Mitt Romney winning the election. Drew Linzer's prediction has been consistent since June and was exactly right in terms of the final electoral vote for Barack Obama. Nate Silver also called the election correctly and Sam Wang's prediction the night before the vote also called the electoral college exactly (although his election day prediction gave Florida to Romney). During the Republican primary the TV media also pretended that there was a horse race going on when it was obvious that Mitt Romney was going to win that election too. Every single network was guilty of perpetuating the fraud of the fake horse race, the question is why. I suppose the cynical answer is that pretending that there's a horse race generates better ratings and that's why everyone bought into the "white lie". Advertisers don't care why people are watching a show, just that they are watching, so it doesn't matter if you're informing them or entertaining them as long as they're there. Or, it could be that the pundits that fill up most of the airtime on political programmes just don't understand mathematics and statistical analysis. I think this is pretty likely. Political science and communication majors don't seem to get maths and on TV at least are weirdly proud of this fact. People who understand very basic maths and science are called "nerds" or "brainiacs" or "geeks" when none of this is rocket science. It's the stuff I studied in high school for my Statistics O Level when I was 15. The talking heads on Fox News in particular don't seem well versed in any of the hard sciences (evincing bafflement and disbelief not only about Nate Silver's stats but also apparently confused by basic physics and evolutionary biology too) but they're not the only guilty ones: MSNBC, CNN, The New York Times, The Guardian, The Washington Post, The Daily Telegraph, even the BBC are just as guilty of pretending that was going to be a coin toss election when since June anyone who studied the numbers from the state polls could see that it wasn't going to be close at all. Three pundits in particular, Joe Scarborough of MSNBC, Dick Morris of Fox and George Will of ABC should be laughed off the national stage because of their anti science views, but they won't will they? And you'd think that the day after the election there would be a massive epistemic rupture on conservative websites like the Drudge Report, Fox News and National Review who actively lied to their desperate readers reassuring them throughout the campaign that Mitt Romney was ahead. Epistemic rupture my foot. Today these websites continue the same dissonance as if nothing has happened.
I'm a novelist, blogger and book reviewer living in St Kilda, Australia.
this is my blog; I'm operating with terrible internet service since I moved house so I won't be blogging as often as I'd like, and alas, can't take or moderate, comments at this time...Presumably normal service will resume at some point!
The first Sean Duffy novel, The Cold Cold Ground, won the 2013 Spinetingler Award and was picked as one of the best crime novels of the year by The Times.
The second Sean Duffy novel, I Hear The Sirens In The Street, won the 2014 Barry Award for best paperback original crime novel.
In The Morning I'll Be Gone (Sean Duffy #3) won the 2014 Ned Kelly Award for best novel and was picked as one of the top 10 crime novels of 2014 by the American Library Association, The Daily Mail & The Toronto Star.
Gun Street Girl (Duffy #4) was shortlisted for the 2016 Edgar Award, the 2015 Ned Kelly Award, The 2016 Anthony Award and was picked as one of the best books of 2015 by The Boston Globe and by The Irish Times.
Sean Duffy #5, Rain Dogs, has been shortlisted for the Theakston Old Peculier Crime Novel of the Year Award 2016, the CWA Ian Fleming Steel Dagger Award 2016 and the 2016 Ned Kelly Award
I was born and grew up in Carrickfergus, Northern Ireland. After studying philosophy at Oxford University I emigrated to New York City where I lived in Harlem for seven years working in bars, bookstores, building sites and finally the basement stacks of the Columbia University Medical School Library in Washington Heights.
In 2000 I moved to Denver, Colorado where I taught high school English and started writing fiction in earnest. My first full length novel Dead I Well May Be was shortlisted for the 2004 Ian Fleming Steel Dagger Award and was picked by Booklist as one of the 10 best crime novels of the year.
In 2008 I moved to St. Kilda, Melbourne, Australia with my wife and kids and started writing full time.
"If Raymond Chandler had grown up in Northern Ireland he would have written The Cold Cold Ground."
"Hardboiled charm, evocative dialogue, an acute sense of place and a sardonic sense of humour make McKinty one of our greatest crime fiction writers."
"A literary thriller that is as concerned with exploring the poisonously claustrophobic demi-monde of Northern Ireland during the Troubles, and the self-sabotaging contradictions of its place and time, as it is with providing the genre’s conventional thrills and spills. The result is a masterpiece of Troubles crime fiction: had David Peace, Eoin McNamee and Brian Moore sat down to brew up the great Troubles novel, they would have been very pleased indeed to have written The Cold Cold Ground."
---The Irish Times
"McKinty is a gifted man with poetry coursing through his veins and thrilling writing dripping from his fingertips."
---The Sunday Independent
"Adrian McKinty is fast gaining a reputation as the finest of the new generation of Irish crime writers, and it's easy to see why on the evidence of The Cold Cold Ground."
---The Glasgow Herald
"McKinty is a storyteller with the kind of style and panache that blur the line between genre and mainstream."
"McKinty's literate expertly crafted crime novel confirms his place as one of his generation's leading talents."
"McKinty crackles with raw talent. His dialogue is superb, his characters rich and his plotting tight and seemless. He writes with a wonderful and wonderfully humorous flair for language raising his work above most crime genre offerings and bumping it right up against literature."
---The San Francisco Chronicle
"The first of McKinty's Forsythe novels, "Dead I Well May Be," was intense, focused and entirely brilliant. This one is looser-limbed, funnier...so, I imagine, is the middle book, "The Dead Yard," which I haven't read but which Publishers Weekly included on its list of the 12 best novels of 2006, along with works by Peter Abrahams, Richard Ford, Cormac McCarthy and George Pelecanos."
---The Washington Post
"McKinty, who grew up in Northern Ireland, has an ear for language and a taste for violence, and he serves up a terrifically gory, swiftly paced thriller."
---The Miami Herald
"There's nothing like an Irish tough guy. And we're not talking about Gentleman Gerry Cooney here. No, we mean the new breed of bare-knuckle Irish writers like Adrian McKinty, Ken Bruen and John Connolly who are bringing fresh life to the crime fiction genre."
---The Philadelphia Inquirer
"McKinty's writing is dark and witty with gritty realism, spot on dialogue, and fascinating characters."
---The Chicago Sun-Times
"If you like your noir staples such as beautiful women, betrayal, murder, mixed with a heavy dose of blood, crunched bones, body parts flying around served up with some throwaway humour, you need look no further, McKinty delivers all of this with the added bonus that the writing is pitch perfect."
---The Barcelona Review
"I really enjoyed combination of toughness and a striking literary style."
"This is a terrific read. McKinty gives us a strong non stop story with attractive characters and fine writing."
---The Morning Star
"[McKinty] draws us close and relates a fantastic tale of murder and revenge in low, wry tones, as if from the next barstool...he drops out of conversational mode to throw in a few breathtaking fever-dream sequences for flavor. And then he springs an ending so right and satisfying it leaves us numb with delight and ready to pop for another round. Start the cliche machine: This is a profoundly satisfying book from a major new talent and one of the best crime fiction debuts of the year."
"The story is soaked in the holy trinity of the noir thriller: betrayal, money and murder, but seen through with a panache and political awareness that give McKinty a keen edge over his rivals."
---The Big Issue
"A darkly humorous cross between a hard-boiled mystery and a Beat novel."
---The St. Louis Post-Dispatch
"A roller coaster of highs and lows, light humour and dark deeds, the powerful undercurrent of McKinty's talent will swiftly drag you away. Let's hope the author does not slow down anytime soon."
---The Irish Examiner
"A virtual carnival of slaughter."
---The Wall Street Journal
"McKinty has once again harnassed the power of poetry, violence, lust and revenge to forge another terrific novel."
---The Irish Post
"A pacey, violent caper in which McKinty vividly portrays [Belfast's] sleazy, still-menacing underbelly."
---The Sunday Times
"McKinty writes with the soul of a poet; his prose dances off the pages with Old World grace and haunting intensity. It's crime fiction on the level of Michael Connolly with the conviction of James Hall."
---The Jackson Clarion-Ledger
"The Bloomsday Dead is the explosive final installment in a trilogy of kinetic thrillers."
---The New York Times
"McKinty's Dead Trilogy has been praised by critics, who call it "intense," "masterful" and "loaded with action." If your reading pleasure leans toward thrillers offering suspense, close calls, wry wit, sharp dialogue, local color and sudden mayhem, you wont do better."
---The Sacramento Bee
"Le Fleuve caché d'Adrian McKinty impressionne par la richesse et la diversité de son ton et de son écriture, passant avec aisance du lyrisme ample de la nostalgie de l'amour perdu au rythme saccadé du narrateur sous l'emprise de l'héroïne. Ce livre rare et maîtrisé est une réussite bien digne de la Série noire."
"McKinty - that guy is a friggin genius."
"McKinty is a cross between Mickey Spillane and Damon Runyan, the toughest, the best."
"Adrian McKinty is one of the great new crime writers emerging from Ireland."